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voice_of_reason
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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,1,57,pm    Post subject: The New Southern Strategy If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121807022975219007.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox

Well looky here. Ol' Bobby Bright made the Wall Street Journal.



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capcityfreepress
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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,2,32,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

Thanks for posting this, VOR.

Arrrg... it refers to "early polls" showing that Bright is competitive and can win yet it doesn't cite the polls themselves. Has anyone seen any polling data in this race?

Quote:
"The pool of votes available to Democrats during tough times gets bigger in the South," says John Anzalone, a Bright political consultant who advised Democratic winners in Louisiana and Mississippi. In contrast with past downturns, he also suggested voters in the current political climate do appear more concerned about economic than cultural issues. "Those are our wheelhouse [core] issues," he says.


Dear Mister Man, thank you for seconding everything I've been saying on this damn forum for six months now, haha.

Quote:
At a local community college, he was elected to the honorary title of "Mr. Boll Weevil."


Now that's SEXY! He should put it on his campaign literature. Cool



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woodie



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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,7,02,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

Here is what I find as for as polling data.

http://www.electionprojection.com/premium/2008/al08.php

According to this site Bright is within 5% of Love. In a Republican District that is quite well. However I find nothing stating where this came from.

Quote:
House District 2 (open)
Jay Love
vs
Bobby Bright
Projected Winner
Love by 5%



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capcityfreepress
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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,7,21,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

Quote:
According to this site Bright is within 5% of Love. In a Republican District that is quite well. However I find nothing stating where this came from.


Thanks, Woodie. I'm not surprised by this at all though. And five points is (on average) about the margin of error anyway, which usually ranges from three to five percent.



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woodie



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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,7,24,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

capcityfreepress wrote:
Quote:
According to this site Bright is within 5% of Love. In a Republican District that is quite well. However I find nothing stating where this came from.


Thanks, Woodie. I'm not surprised by this at all though. And five points is (on average) about the margin of error anyway, which usually ranges from three to five percent.


If you go to that site though there is something else very interesting. 1. there is no data on the district 3 race. And the district 5 race is within 4% in the favor of democrats whre currently that seat is held by a blue dog dem. So it seems like there is a possibilty of the state basically netting nothing. A dem can take over one seat and a republican can take over another.



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capcityfreepress
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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,7,33,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

Quote:
1. there is no data on the district 3 race.


That one is still a mystery to me. I keep hearing/seeing reports which state he has a chance to beat Rogers, yet, he has no name recognition, has held no office previously, etc. It is a fact that he's raising enough money to compete, but that *alone* doesn't upend an incumbent. It's possible if people are *that* fed up with Rogers, but I haven't seen that sentiment at all.



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whatajoke



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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,7,37,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

capcityfreepress wrote:
Quote:
1. there is no data on the district 3 race.


That one is still a mystery to me. I keep hearing/seeing reports which state he has a chance to beat Rogers, yet, he has no name recognition, has held no office previously, etc. It is a fact that he's raising enough money to compete, but that *alone* doesn't upend an incumbent. It's possible if people are *that* fed up with Rogers, but I haven't seen that sentiment at all.


Maybe people are finally looking at the approval rating of Congress.... It's way up there at 9%, hell even Bush has a 27......

A lot of people are getting real tired of these incumbents..... Wink



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woodie



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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,7,51,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

whatajoke wrote:
capcityfreepress wrote:
Quote:
1. there is no data on the district 3 race.


That one is still a mystery to me. I keep hearing/seeing reports which state he has a chance to beat Rogers, yet, he has no name recognition, has held no office previously, etc. It is a fact that he's raising enough money to compete, but that *alone* doesn't upend an incumbent. It's possible if people are *that* fed up with Rogers, but I haven't seen that sentiment at all.


Maybe people are finally looking at the approval rating of Congress.... It's way up there at 9%, hell even Bush has a 27......

A lot of people are getting real tired of these incumbents..... Wink


Yea whata I agree their approval rating is low but normally the way that works is that most people are sick of all of congress EXCEPT their particular congressman. So you would be sick of Pelosi but love Rogers.

I'm with Cap I dont understand how he is competitive at all. He is basically a nobody. ATleast people know Bright whether you love him or hate him. This guy is a no name.



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whatajoke



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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,7,57,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

You know what, as I recall, Bright was a no name when he beat Folmer.... People just got fed up, finally.....

I guess we'll see. I was telephone polled last friday for this district.... Very Happy



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woodie



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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,8,00,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

whatajoke wrote:
You know what, as I recall, Bright was a no name when he beat Folmer.... People just got fed up, finally.....

I guess we'll see. I was telephone polled last friday for this district.... Very Happy


Oh I dont disagree with you at all. And I think thats what Cap and I are both getting at. IN Montgomery during that time you knew there was a segment of the population that was just sick of Folmar. Both of us are saying we had no idea that people were unhappy with Rogers. But I guess time will tell.



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capcityfreepress
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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,8,04,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

Quote:
Oh I dont disagree with you at all. And I think thats what Cap and I are both getting at. IN Montgomery during that time you knew there was a segment of the population that was just sick of Folmar. Both of us are saying we had no idea that people were unhappy with Rogers. But I guess time will tell.


Yeah, in *that* race, discontent was through the roof and Bright was just able to harness it. I'm sure there are plenty of people in the City of Montgomery who will admit they voted *against* Folmar more so than they voted *for* Bright. I have't encountered that level of being "fed up" from people in the third district and certainly not THAT level of it.



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StephenA



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PostPosted: Thu,07,Aug,2008,8,58,pm    Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote

The one thing that I do know about the District 3 race is that Segalls campaign manager ran the campaigns in Ms., and La.



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